I spent time recently with Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, along with my undergraduate and graduate real estate students. While the headlines are busy chasing clicks, Lawrence and I dug into the actual data moving the needle for 2026.
My biggest takeaway? The inventory shift is happening faster than the media realizes.
We are currently seeing the lowest mortgage rates in three years, and policy makers are finally considering significant capital gains relief for homeowners – a move that could transform the market by removing the financial friction of selling.
Here are the three “Signals” you need to know:
- The “Lock-In” Effect is Cracking: The spread between current market rates and those “unicorn” rates of 2021 is finally narrowing. Sellers no longer feel “trapped” by their 3% mortgages, which is expected to unlock a massive wave of pent-up inventory.
- The 10-Year Treasury Disconnect: While inflation is stabilizing, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is still wider than the historical average. As this gap continues to shrink, we anticipate even more downward pressure on mortgage rates throughout the year.
- The Wealth Gap: The data remains undisputed—Americans build long-term wealth by owning real estate, not renting it. Homeownership remains the primary engine for middle-class financial security.
In a market defined by noise, I’m committed to bringing my clients and students the signal.
