The market changed. Maybe your pattern recognition didn’t.
December 29, 1972. Eastern Airlines Flight 401 is on final approach into Miami. The crew spots a burned-out landing gear indicator light. Nothing catastrophic — just a bulb. But all three of them lock onto it. They put the plane on autopilot and stare at that light, poking at it, talking about it, completely absorbed.
Nobody notices the autopilot has quietly disengaged.
The L-1011 descends for four minutes at a rate nobody feels. At 11:42 PM, it hits the Everglades at 227 mph. 101 people die.
The NTSB investigation found the aircraft was perfectly airworthy. The landing gear was fine. The crew simply stopped flying the plane.
Investigators called it target fixation: a term WWII fighter pilots coined for bomber crews who got so locked onto a ground target during a strafing run that they flew straight into it.
- Your brain narrows.
- Everything outside the focal point disappears.
- You stop reading the instruments right in front of you
Here’s the question no one in this industry wants to sit with:
What’s your burned-out bulb?
Because I’ve watched some MLOs stare at rate sheets waiting for the refi wave to return, while $35 trillion in homeowner equity sits in their existing database untouched. Nearly half of all mortgaged homes in America are “equity-rich” right now: loan balance under 50% of value. Average tappable equity per homeowner: $195,000. That’s not a rate environment problem. That’s a conversation that hasn’t happened yet.
I’ve watched some Broker-Owners chase the Instagram agent — big following, big personality, big promises — while the steady $4M producer on their own roster quietly grinds toward burnout because nobody called to ask how she’s doing.
One conversation. One system. One habit shift.
That agent doubles. But the radar never beeped for her because she wasn’t moving fast enough to register.
I’ve watched some agents run the same buyer lead campaign on repeat — same Zillow spend, same open house routine, same Facebook ad — while their past-client database ages out untouched. Those clients bought three, four, five years ago. Their lives have changed. Kids, divorces, job moves, aging parents. They’re not “not moving” they just haven’t been asked the right question by someone they already trust. That agent isn’t in a slow market. They’re flying over the opportunity at 30,000 feet and calling it a headwind.
That’s not a market problem. That’s a calibration problem.
- The recruiter ignores the “not yet” candidate who said no six months ago — and who now has a new manager they would rather not work for.
- The MLO skips the past-client check-in because it doesn’t feel like prospecting.
- The Broker-Owner cancels the culture meeting because nothing’s on fire today.
- The agent refreshes Zillow lead counts instead of opening their CRM.
Nothing’s on fire yet.
The pilots who survive target fixation aren’t the ones who fly less aggressively. They’re the ones who built a discipline of checking instruments even when everything feels fine. Especially when everything feels fine.
So here’s the challenge — not a checklist, not a homework assignment:
This week, make one call your radar told you to skip.
The past client sitting on $200K in equity who “probably isn’t thinking about it.” The steady producer you haven’t checked in with in 90 days. The recruit who said no in October. The buyer from 2020 whose kid just started high school and whose house has four bedrooms they don’t need anymore.
Your radar didn’t lie to you in 2021. It just hasn’t been recalibrated since.
The signal is there. The plane is flying.
Check your instruments.
Read a brief story from the archives: [Situational Awareness vs. Target Fixation]






