Category: Growth

My acquaintance Lawrence Yun posted some stats about the next two years a while ago. I’ve updated those stats below. An interesting way to think about the next 24 months:

Think about it:

• New Beginnings:
  • Births: Approximately 3.6 million per year
  • Marriages: Around 3 million per year
• Life’s Transitions:
  • Divorces: About 1.5 million per year
  • Aging Population: 19,000 people turn 65 every day
  • Deaths: Approximately 2.8 million per year
• Economic Dynamics:
  • Job Growth: Potential for 4 million new jobs
  • Job Mobility: Over 25 million job switches

These demographic and economic trends will likely drive the following real estate shifts:

• Increased demand for family homes from new parents and growing families.
• Potential demand for smaller homes or rental properties as older adults downsize.
• Increased demand for senior living facilities and healthcare services.
• Job mobility and economic shifts will continue to influence housing demand.

What are your thoughts on how these trends will impact the real estate market in your specific region?

This month’s market update from KCM gives us the:

5 questions consumers are curious about:

• When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
• What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down?
• Will I Be Able To Find a Home If I Move?
• Will The Housing Market Pick Up Next Year?
• Is the Market Going To Crash?

No one expects you to have a crystal ball, yet your prospects expect a fact-based point of view.  The narrative below is intended for that purpose. (DM me for the slides)

The highlights?

• The census, Fannie Mae, MBA, NAHB, NAR project a 13% increase in home sales in 2025.
• On a typical day in October, 29.2% more homes were actively for sale than at the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.
• The Altos Reports –  linked below – show how this trend is driving a more “balanced market” with a slight seller advantage in many markets.
  • National
  • California
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • New York
• Mortgage rates? A study conducted by the Bright MLS indicated that 70% of buyers in the last year abandoned their search because of affordability. The folks over at Altos seem to suggest an infliction point when rates get to 6% and below.
  • The consensus of Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo below 6 and near 5.5%
  • Remember – Bond Yields: Mortgage rates often track the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds.
  • When bond yields rise, mortgage rates tend to follow.
  • I have a white paper on “Mortgage Rates and Bond Yields.” If you are interested, send me a direct message.
• The National Debt? A challenge for lower mortgage rates.
• Consumer debt is at record levels, yet home equity is also at record levels.
• The implication?
  • Historic equity – and a shortage of supply –  indicates a crash is not likely.

So what should we expect in 2025?

1. More homes to sell next year – at least 13% more (consensus)
2. Mortgage rates to decline below an infliction point
3. Price appreciation to slow – a consensus projection of around 2.5%
4. The unknown – institutional investors are holding on to a significant portfolio of residential homes – when will other investments create higher returns and an inventory sell-off?

4 Steps to Crush the Rest of 2024 and Beyond:

The S.N.A.K. Framework

As we sprint toward the end of 2024 and gear up for a new year, it’s the perfect time to reassess our goals and strategies. Think about the S.N.A.K. framework to help you make the most of the remaining months and set yourself up for success in 2025.

Let’s break down each component:

S: Systems for Sustainable Success

• Create Effective Systems: Develop routines and habits that support your goals.
• Prioritize Tasks: Use time management techniques like the Eisenhower Matrix to focus on important tasks.
• Automate & Delegate When Possible: Utilize technology to streamline tasks and free up time.

N: Network Your Way to Success

• Build Relationships: Connect with people in your industry, attend networking events, and engage on social media.
• Leverage Your Network: Seek advice from your connections, referrals, and potential collaborations.
• Give Back: Help others in your network, as this can strengthen your relationships and open doors.

A: Accountability is Key

• Set Clear Goals: Define specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals.
• Track Your Progress:** Monitor your progress using calendars, planners, or project management software.
• Find an Accountability Partner: Share your goals with a friend or colleague who can keep you motivated and on track.

K: Knowledge is Power

• Continuous Learning: Dedicate time to learning new skills or deepening your expertise in your current field.
• Stay Updated: Keep abreast of industry trends and advancements.
• Seek Mentorship: Find experienced individuals who can guide you and offer valuable insights.

By implementing the S.N.A.K. framework, you can significantly boost your productivity, achieve your goals, and set yourself up for long-term success. Remember, consistency is key. Small, consistent steps can lead to significant results.

What are your thoughts on the S.N.A.K. framework? Share your experiences and tips.

Persistence cannot be replaced.

• Sometimes people need to hear it another way.
• Sometimes people need more reasons to move forward.
• Sometimes people just really don’t know how to move forward.
• Sometimes people just need more time to make sense of it all.

Persistence cannot be replaced.

There is absolutely no substitute. Either you will lean in, stay with each opportunity, and figure it out – or you won’t.

Persistence to win the day.

Share it!

A One-Degree Shift: The Power of Small Action

Have you ever considered the impact of a tiny change? A seemingly insignificant adjustment can lead to significant, long-term consequences.

A Flight Path to Incremental Change

I was reminded of this concept during a flight from DFW to LAX. Glancing at the flight information display, I was struck by the precision required to navigate a massive aircraft.

A One-Degree Error: A seemingly minor one-degree deviation in the flight path can result in a substantial miss after a relatively short distance. After just one mile, the plane could be 92 feet off course.

Small Shifts, Big Impact

Perspective. The flight path from Boston to Los Angeles is 2986 miles long. If you were to deviate from this path by 1%, you would end up about 30 miles off course. Closer to John Wayne (SNA) in Orange County than LAX.

This principle isn’t exclusive to aviation. It applies to every aspect of our lives, from personal habits to professional goals. A slight positive shift, like consciously practicing gratitude daily or dedicating a few minutes daily to learning a new skill, can compound over time and lead to significant personal growth.

Conversely, small negative habits, such as mindless scrolling on social media or indulging in unhealthy snacks, can gradually erode our well-being and hinder our progress.

Recalibrating Your Course

If you find yourself off course, don’t despair. Accept, reflect, and redirect. The key is to identify the small shifts contributing to the problem and make conscious efforts to correct them.

Ready to Make a One-Degree Shift?

If you’re interested in discussing how you can make positive changes in your real estate business, I’m here to help. Let’s work together to identify the small steps that can lead to big results.

Remember, every journey begins with a single step.

The “Perfect Day!” In this classic exercise, you write out your idealized, perfect day in great detail, beginning with what time you get up and what you have for breakfast, continuing through what you do for each hour of the day and who you talk to. The more detail you can add to the plan, the better.

• So how do I get started? Try this:

1. 1. Where (location) would you wake up, and who would be with you – if anyone?
   2. What time would you wake up?
   3. How would you wake up?
   4. What’s the first thing you would do?
   5. What would your morning routine look like?
   6. What would you have for breakfast?
   7. When / where, and what time would you go to work?
   8. What contribution to your organization, to your community to others would you make?
   9. When, what and with whom would you eat for lunch?
   10. What time would you finish work?
   11. What would you do in the evening?
   12. What time would you go to sleep?
   13. Would you exercise, have fun, or work reflection into this day?
   14. How would you connect with your friends and family?
   15. What hobbies would you be doing?
   16. How would spiritual fulfillment fit into your day? What would you add?

• What would you add to the list?
• What would you remove from the list?

In this exercise of envisioning a perfect day, I’ve found myself drawn to a productive and fulfilling routine. My ideal day is one that balances professional growth with personal well-being. It’s a day where I can achieve my goals, contribute to my community, and maintain a healthy work-life balance.

While this may be a fictionalized version of my day, it serves as a valuable reminder of what truly matters to me in my professional life. It’s a vision of a career that is both challenging and rewarding, where I can make a meaningful impact and find joy in my work.

Today’s mindset. Jack Canfield said it best:

You only have control over three things in your life:

1.  The thoughts you think,

2.  The images you visualize, and

3.  The actions you take.

In other news. I told Bev earlier, “True character comes out in the parking lot when you are a few minutes late, and you think someone took your parking spot!” 

Today’s mindset:

“Being in motion and taking action sound similar, yet they are different.”

Motion is when you’re busy doing something, but that task will never produce an outcome by itself.

Action, on the other hand, is the type of behavior that will get you a result.

If I outline 20 ideas for articles I want to write, that’s motion. If I actually write and publish an article, that’s action.

What action do you need to take today? (Hint for most of us: create 1 or more new appointments.)

The Great Stay, Why Homeowners Are Staying Put

For our recruiting and attracting clients, the future is bright for agent growth.

As my business partner Ben Hess – a sailor, says – “fair winds and following seas:” A well-known phrase in the maritime world that means the wind and sea will likely be going in your direction.

October 2024 Commentary

Jobs and real estate work together… has that changed? My business acquaintance Mike Simonsen from Altos Research coined the term “the Great Stay.” In summary, Mike states:

• Conventional wisdom has been that the job market must weaken and unemployment must rise… yet unemployment has stayed low for several years.
• Normally, when unemployment is low, many of us have confidence we can find a new or better job. Maybe more likely to change jobs.
• What we are seeing post-pandemic is layoff rates are very low, and the rate at which companies are hiring is low. So, no one wants to upset “a good thing.”
• Housing? Homeowners have a good thing with low rates and a very good run-up in equity.
• The incentive to move to “lower cost” states has equalized with higher rates. So, no one wants to upset “a good thing!”

The great stay for jobs and real estate.

• While inventory is more than the prior year (34% more), it is compressing as recently at 40% more than last year.
• The story that real estate is local is becoming more pronounced; for example, while Denver has more inventory than at any time in the last decade, Orange County, CA is still much tighter.

The outlook? On a National basis, Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist, Realtor.com, said, “We expect the economy to land softly and housing inventory to continue to recover. This should put downward pressure on mortgage rates this fall and winter and set the stage for a much better season for homebuyers in 2025.”

Bankrate did a survey that indicated “More Than Half of Homeowners Would Be Motivated to Buy With Rates Under 6% while 33% Of Sellers Would Be Motivated Below 6%.” Some are projecting that this rate scenario could occur in the first quarter of 2025.

Some additional highlights?

• Conditions are better now than in prior quarters.
  • The third week in a row with more sales – this week, 16% more than a year ago
• Very different market-by-market
• Mortgage rates are now 6.18%, and a four-firm prediction says 5.68% by Q4 of next year.
• National average price appreciation is expected to slow to 2.6%
  • Wide variation depending on geography and new home builder activity
• A 14% increase in home sales (low-range 10% and high-range 21%)
  • 2024 is projected to end at 4.7 million homes sold
  • 2025 is projected at 5.4 million (average of 3 sources with a range from 5.2 to 5.7)
• Waiting until next spring or summer would give you more inventory to choose from, but you will be up against greater competition during peak buying season.
  • “Nothing Good Happens When You Wait,” ~ Mark Johnson.

My takeaway?

• No one can give perfect advice… yet you can provide informed advice.
  • Follow the data.
  • The trends leave clues.
• It’s never been more important to understand the Macro (State and National) and Micro (Regional and Local) markets. My friends at Altos and KCM have some pretty great tools to do both. Hit me up for more insight.
  • Altos US Nationwide Real Estate Trends
  • Altos – Texas Real Estate Trends
  • Altos – Florida Real Estate Trends
  • Altos – California Real Estate Trends

Happy business development!