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The Economy and Housing, What’s Up?

Just received some edits from my Ph.D. friend, who is giving my textbook on the introduction to real estate economics a test drive. That got me thinking: The recession of 2023 is postponed and more likely canceled.

Moody’s Analytics has the GDP estimate for the current quarter at 3.9 percent annualized growth The Federal Reserve of Atlanta estimates growth at 5.9 percent. Either way, you slice it, healthy stats.

A point in time:

  • Unemployment is low at: 3.8%
  • Business investment: holding steady
  • Consumer spending: steady
  • Consumer sentiment: improving
  • Non-residential investment: contributed 25% of GDP growth and increasing
  • Industrial and Manufacturing: turn-around with slight improvement
  • Inflation is moderating with some disinflation for housing rent and vehicles

Housing? The challenge remains a lack of resale inventory and mortgage rates. The lack of inventory is moving homebuyers into the new home market. New residential construction is accelerating. Fun fact: NAR’s chief economist stated the resale market could absorb a 50% increase in inventory. That’s not likely to happen at current rates – thus, new home sales OR sales activity from the 10,000 Americans turning 65 each day, many of whom own their homes mortgage-free.

As seasonality picks up its pace, your buyer clients will find some opportunities between now and the end of the year.

It appears the US economy has proven more robust than the pundits thought. As inflation continues to improve and when growth remains steady, that could erase the final fears of negative growth. At the end of the day, what can we control?

  • We CANNOT control the market.
  • We CANNOT control what others think.
  • We CAN control our business process.
  • We CAN control our thoughts, behaviors, and routines.

And that’s how we win the day.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

The Power of the Post-Mission Debrief: Lessons from the Blue Angel – Part 2

“Every Monday Matters.”

This is especially true when it comes to continuous improvement in business. Recently, I’ve been working with a client, listening in on sales calls and conducting role-playing sessions. The insights gained from these activities are truly priceless. But the real magic happens after the activity, during the debrief.

In the business world, “debrief” often carries a negative connotation. It’s frequently associated with mistakes, failures, and blame. This fear-based approach is counterproductive. The U.S. Navy’s Blue Angels flight demonstration squadron offers a powerful alternative perspective.

The Blue Angels, known for their precision and flawless aerial maneuvers, understand the critical importance of debriefing. After every flight—whether a practice session or a public performance—they conduct a thorough debriefing process. Their goal isn’t to assign blame but to identify areas for improvement and drive fear out of the organization.

Why is debriefing so effective?

  • Accelerated Learning: Debriefing allows you to extract valuable lessons from every experience, both positive and negative. It transforms experience into expertise.
  • Improved Performance: By identifying areas for improvement, you can make adjustments and enhance your performance in future endeavors.
  • Enhanced Teamwork: Debriefing fosters open communication and collaboration, strengthening team cohesion.
  • Reduced Errors: By analyzing past mistakes, you can prevent them from recurring.
  • Increased Confidence: When you consistently learn and improve, you build confidence in your abilities.

How to Conduct an Effective Debrief:

Here are some key principles inspired by the Blue Angels:

  • Focus on Facts, Not Blame: Stick to objective observations and avoid assigning blame. For example, instead of saying “You messed up the closing,” try “The closing rate was lower than expected. Let’s analyze the factors that contributed to that.”
  • Encourage Open Communication: Create a safe and supportive environment where everyone feels comfortable sharing their perspectives.
  • Start with the Positives: Begin by acknowledging what went well. This sets a positive tone and reinforces successful strategies.
  • Identify Areas for Improvement: Focus on specific actions that could be improved in the future.
  • Create Actionable Steps: Develop concrete steps to implement the identified improvements.
  • Document the Learnings: Keep a record of the key takeaways from each debriefing session.

Applying Debriefing to Sales Calls and Role-Playing:

When debriefing sales calls or role-playing sessions, consider these questions:

  • What were the strengths of the call/role-play?
  • What could have been done differently?
  • What specific strategies or techniques were effective?
  • What objections or challenges were encountered, and how were they handled?
  • What are the key takeaways for future calls/role-plays?

By adopting a structured debriefing process, you can transform every experience into a valuable learning opportunity and propel your business forward. Make every Monday—and every activity—count. And that is how we win the day!

Every Monday Matters – Part 1

A Recipe for High Performance

 

Every Monday Matters
Every Monday Matters

The speed of trust.

Trust. The speed of trust.

We had tickets to tonight’s doubleheader: Reds vs. the Angels, and I was the designated driver. My family trusted me to drive to get them back and forth safely; in fact, Tim fell asleep in route. That’s trust. Trust is so important in so many ways.

Whether it’s driving my family or friends or working with my associates, clients, and vendors, trust is everything. There’s nothing more impactful on people, their work, and their performance than trust.

Stephen Covey said it best, “You can ignore the principles that govern trust—but they will not ignore you.”

In other news, it was a tough night for the home team.

The speed of trust.
The speed of trust.

Persistence

Here is what I know as an entrepreneur, you try 10 things, and 9 don’t work out as planned, and 1 (after tweaking it) works.

The problems entrepreneurs confront every day would overwhelm most managers.

The point? Persistence. If you believe in what problems you are solving, you keep iterating until you find the formula.

I’m in the game.

It’s not about the money… it’s the challenge of solving a problem that helps people and firms grow.

It’s the community, connection, and servant leadership.

#WinTheDay

PS: Checklist

1. Is my vision clear and compelling?
2. Are my goals defined?
3. Do I have the right strategy?
4. Can I execute the strategy?
5. Is it fun with people I love and respect?

 

Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.

The Real Estate Market – August 2023

For my friends in real estate and my friends that are buyers and sellers… some real estate market observations thanks to my friends over at Altos:

We all know that a change in mortgage rates reduces the real estate sales rate and vice versa. With the highest mortgage rates in 20 years, a few observations:

35% of sellers are taking a price decline from the initial sales price, which is ticking up slightly. Austin, Texas, has the highest level of price cuts, with nearly 50% of listed homes with a price cut. The lowest? Irvine, California, at 15% of homes listed.

There are 10% fewer homes on the market now than this time last year. The inventory of homes for sale tends to peak at the end of August – yet not this year with higher rates – inventory might continue to rise past normal seasonality.

Late August Observations…

  • Unsold homes ticked up this week.
  • Inventory gain week over week is the highest in a few months – and good news for your buyers that can afford to buy
  • The sales rate has slowed; part seasonality and part rates.
  • On a national basis, 365K homes are in contact right now, up a fraction vs. last week.
  • However, new pending sales this week were 63K vs. 70K last year.

As we enter into seasonality, the trend to look for – how quickly will new pending sales shrink? Will it be more significant than normal seasonality? That is the stat I’ll be watching.

One bright spot – 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily and are typically cash buyers when they downsize or move closer to family.

Look at the stats in your area – click here.

Replace fear of the unknown with curiosity.
Replace fear of the unknown with curiosity.

The most important question? 

The most important question? 

“What do you really really want?” This Is really the second most important question. Say what?! The more important question is: “What are willing to give up to get it?” 

Are you willing to give up chill time for gym time? 

Are you willing to trade busy work for prospecting, business development, or recruiting? 

Write a book? Are you willing to give up what you usually do from 7 to 9 pm and go to the library instead? 

I’ll do whatever it takes to get what I really, really want.

I’ll give up whatever it takes to ______ (fill in the blank)

To get _________, (fill in the blank) I’ll do whatever it takes.

When you are willing to do whatever it takes, you’ll earn want you really want.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

Onward and Upward.

“Onward and upward” is a mindset that requires a few key ingredients: optimism, empathy, curiosity and action.

  • Optimism is the ability to overcome adversity despite the circumstances.
  • Empathy is the ability to understand situations from another’s perspective with no judgment. The ability to choose to respond rather than to react.
  • Curiosity. To be effective be curious: curious about how people are feeling, curious about why things happen, curious about the future, curious about steps to take to navigate difficult waters.
  • Action. The winners are the doers. Talk is cheap, action speaks.

When we make changes by design vs. default we can craft a future the supports the growth we deserve.

Perfection is not a standard, progress is.

With 80 to 90 working days left in 2023 I’m opening up 10 slots for “what’s possible” strategy sessions. Because it’s not how you start the game it’s how you finish.

Onward and upward.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

Be The Voice Of Reason

A favorite and a classic.

Be The Voice Of Reason

Human nature craves the exchange of information. When that exchange turns unproductive try this 4 step approach:

  • Understand the difference between valid information and gossip.
  • If gossip nip it in the bud
  • If gossip change the subject
  • If gossip confront the individual

Keep the strategies above in mind so when you’re confronted with a gossipy associate, you have the checklist to respond appropriately.

Doing The Right Thing

One of my lawyer friends quoted Carl Sandburg today:

“If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell.”

My take? Doing the right thing is always the right thing and good business. “Make it right” and “Honor your commitments” is one of the best mantras ever.

Thoughts?

Doing the right thing is always the right thing.
Doing the right thing is always the right thing.

The Accountability Advantage: How Tracking Your Efforts Drives Exponential Growth

“What is measured improves. What is measured and reported back exponentially improves.”

This simple principle has a profound impact on performance, whether you’re an Olympic athlete or a business professional.

Consider a study of Olympic-level figure skaters. When they trained on their own, they averaged 60 jumps and spins per hour. But when their coach started tracking their attempts on a whiteboard in real-time, their output soared to 100 elements per hour! Removing the whiteboard caused their performance to drop back down, proving the power of immediate feedback and accountability.

This same principle applies to your business. The single greatest leverage you can use to achieve the success you deserve is increased accountability. It’s about more than just setting goals; it’s about consistently tracking your progress and making adjustments as needed.

That’s why I’m introducing “TAG”—The Appointment Game. This simple 30-day challenge focuses on two key metrics:

  1. Daily New Conversations: How many new conversations about real estate are you initiating each day? This could be through networking, social media, cold calling, or any other lead generation activity.
  2. Weekly New Appointments: How many new appointments are you scheduling each week as a result of those conversations?

Why these metrics? They focus on the activities that directly drive business growth: connecting with potential clients and securing opportunities to present your value.

Here’s how to play TAG:

  1. Track Your Numbers: Each day, track the number of new real estate conversations you have. Each week, track the number of new appointments you set.
  2. Report Your Progress (Optional): Share your progress with an accountability partner, a mentor, or even on social media. Public accountability can be a powerful motivator.
  3. Analyze and Adjust: At the end of each week, review your numbers. Are you hitting your targets? If not, what adjustments can you make to your strategy?

Example:

  • Goal: 5 new conversations per day, leading to 2 new appointments per week.
  • Tracking: Use a simple spreadsheet, a notebook, or a CRM to record your daily conversations and weekly appointments.
  • Analysis: If you’re consistently having conversations but not setting appointments, you might need to refine your qualifying questions or your appointment-setting pitch.

What would happen to your business if you consistently focused on these two metrics for the next 30 days? I challenge you to find out.

TAG, you’re it!

Start tracking, start connecting, and start growing to win the day!

What is measured improves.
What is measured improves.