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The Economy and Housing, What’s Up?

Just received some edits from my Ph.D. friend, who is giving my textbook on the introduction to real estate economics a test drive. That got me thinking: The recession of 2023 is postponed and more likely canceled.

Moody’s Analytics has the GDP estimate for the current quarter at 3.9 percent annualized growth The Federal Reserve of Atlanta estimates growth at 5.9 percent. Either way, you slice it, healthy stats.

A point in time:

  • Unemployment is low at: 3.8%
  • Business investment: holding steady
  • Consumer spending: steady
  • Consumer sentiment: improving
  • Non-residential investment: contributed 25% of GDP growth and increasing
  • Industrial and Manufacturing: turn-around with slight improvement
  • Inflation is moderating with some disinflation for housing rent and vehicles

Housing? The challenge remains a lack of resale inventory and mortgage rates. The lack of inventory is moving homebuyers into the new home market. New residential construction is accelerating. Fun fact: NAR’s chief economist stated the resale market could absorb a 50% increase in inventory. That’s not likely to happen at current rates – thus, new home sales OR sales activity from the 10,000 Americans turning 65 each day, many of whom own their homes mortgage-free.

As seasonality picks up its pace, your buyer clients will find some opportunities between now and the end of the year.

It appears the US economy has proven more robust than the pundits thought. As inflation continues to improve and when growth remains steady, that could erase the final fears of negative growth. At the end of the day, what can we control?

  • We CANNOT control the market.
  • We CANNOT control what others think.
  • We CAN control our business process.
  • We CAN control our thoughts, behaviors, and routines.

And that’s how we win the day.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

The Power of the Post-Mission Debrief: Lessons from the Blue Angel – Part 2

“Every Monday Matters.”

This is especially true when it comes to continuous improvement in business. Recently, I’ve been working with a client, listening in on sales calls and conducting role-playing sessions. The insights gained from these activities are truly priceless. But the real magic happens after the activity, during the debrief.

In the business world, “debrief” often carries a negative connotation. It’s frequently associated with mistakes, failures, and blame. This fear-based approach is counterproductive. The U.S. Navy’s Blue Angels flight demonstration squadron offers a powerful alternative perspective.

The Blue Angels, known for their precision and flawless aerial maneuvers, understand the critical importance of debriefing. After every flight—whether a practice session or a public performance—they conduct a thorough debriefing process. Their goal isn’t to assign blame but to identify areas for improvement and drive fear out of the organization.

Why is debriefing so effective?

  • Accelerated Learning: Debriefing allows you to extract valuable lessons from every experience, both positive and negative. It transforms experience into expertise.
  • Improved Performance: By identifying areas for improvement, you can make adjustments and enhance your performance in future endeavors.
  • Enhanced Teamwork: Debriefing fosters open communication and collaboration, strengthening team cohesion.
  • Reduced Errors: By analyzing past mistakes, you can prevent them from recurring.
  • Increased Confidence: When you consistently learn and improve, you build confidence in your abilities.

How to Conduct an Effective Debrief:

Here are some key principles inspired by the Blue Angels:

  • Focus on Facts, Not Blame: Stick to objective observations and avoid assigning blame. For example, instead of saying “You messed up the closing,” try “The closing rate was lower than expected. Let’s analyze the factors that contributed to that.”
  • Encourage Open Communication: Create a safe and supportive environment where everyone feels comfortable sharing their perspectives.
  • Start with the Positives: Begin by acknowledging what went well. This sets a positive tone and reinforces successful strategies.
  • Identify Areas for Improvement: Focus on specific actions that could be improved in the future.
  • Create Actionable Steps: Develop concrete steps to implement the identified improvements.
  • Document the Learnings: Keep a record of the key takeaways from each debriefing session.

Applying Debriefing to Sales Calls and Role-Playing:

When debriefing sales calls or role-playing sessions, consider these questions:

  • What were the strengths of the call/role-play?
  • What could have been done differently?
  • What specific strategies or techniques were effective?
  • What objections or challenges were encountered, and how were they handled?
  • What are the key takeaways for future calls/role-plays?

By adopting a structured debriefing process, you can transform every experience into a valuable learning opportunity and propel your business forward. Make every Monday—and every activity—count. And that is how we win the day!

Every Monday Matters – Part 1

A Recipe for High Performance

 

Every Monday Matters
Every Monday Matters

Persistence

Here is what I know as an entrepreneur, you try 10 things, and 9 don’t work out as planned, and 1 (after tweaking it) works.

The problems entrepreneurs confront every day would overwhelm most managers.

The point? Persistence. If you believe in what problems you are solving, you keep iterating until you find the formula.

I’m in the game.

It’s not about the money… it’s the challenge of solving a problem that helps people and firms grow.

It’s the community, connection, and servant leadership.

#WinTheDay

PS: Checklist

1. Is my vision clear and compelling?
2. Are my goals defined?
3. Do I have the right strategy?
4. Can I execute the strategy?
5. Is it fun with people I love and respect?

 

Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.

The most important question? 

The most important question? 

“What do you really really want?” This Is really the second most important question. Say what?! The more important question is: “What are willing to give up to get it?” 

Are you willing to give up chill time for gym time? 

Are you willing to trade busy work for prospecting, business development, or recruiting? 

Write a book? Are you willing to give up what you usually do from 7 to 9 pm and go to the library instead? 

I’ll do whatever it takes to get what I really, really want.

I’ll give up whatever it takes to ______ (fill in the blank)

To get _________, (fill in the blank) I’ll do whatever it takes.

When you are willing to do whatever it takes, you’ll earn want you really want.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

Onward and Upward.

“Onward and upward” is a mindset that requires a few key ingredients: optimism, empathy, curiosity and action.

  • Optimism is the ability to overcome adversity despite the circumstances.
  • Empathy is the ability to understand situations from another’s perspective with no judgment. The ability to choose to respond rather than to react.
  • Curiosity. To be effective be curious: curious about how people are feeling, curious about why things happen, curious about the future, curious about steps to take to navigate difficult waters.
  • Action. The winners are the doers. Talk is cheap, action speaks.

When we make changes by design vs. default we can craft a future the supports the growth we deserve.

Perfection is not a standard, progress is.

With 80 to 90 working days left in 2023 I’m opening up 10 slots for “what’s possible” strategy sessions. Because it’s not how you start the game it’s how you finish.

Onward and upward.

What's Possible?
What’s Possible?

Doing The Right Thing

One of my lawyer friends quoted Carl Sandburg today:

“If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell.”

My take? Doing the right thing is always the right thing and good business. “Make it right” and “Honor your commitments” is one of the best mantras ever.

Thoughts?

Doing the right thing is always the right thing.
Doing the right thing is always the right thing.

The Leader’s Role: Defining Reality and Driving Results

“The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between, the leader is a servant.” – Max de Pree

This powerful quote by Max de Pree highlights the multifaceted role of a leader. Defining reality isn’t about creating a fantasy world; it’s about understanding the current situation, identifying challenges and opportunities, and setting a clear direction for the team.

For business leaders, defining reality often boils down to understanding the core drivers of success. Here are three crucial realities that top performers consistently embrace:

  1. Lead Generation Drives Revenue: This is the fundamental truth of any sales-driven business. Without a consistent flow of qualified leads, there are no appointments, no sales, and ultimately, no revenue. This isn’t just about “moneyball” tactics; it’s about recognizing that lead generation is the lifeblood of your business.

  2. Relationships Fuel Growth: The size and quality of your network and client database directly impact the size of your business. Building strong relationships, nurturing leads, and delivering exceptional service are essential for long-term growth. This requires creative marketing campaigns and genuine connection with your audience.

  3. Consistency is Key: Consistent effort over time is the most powerful driver of success. It’s not about occasional bursts of activity; it’s about showing up day after day, week after week, and consistently implementing your strategies. This consistent effort builds momentum, strengthens relationships, and ultimately leads to sustainable results.

Leadership in Action:

A leader’s role is to define these realities for their team, provide the necessary resources and support, and foster a culture of consistent action. This means:

  • Setting clear expectations and goals related to lead generation, relationship building, and consistent effort.
  • Providing training and resources to help the team excel in these areas.
  • Holding the team accountable for their performance.
  • Recognizing and rewarding consistent effort and results.

By embracing these realities and leading with a servant’s heart, you can create a high-performing team and achieve sustainable business success. And that is how we win the day!

 

The Accountability Advantage: How Tracking Your Efforts Drives Exponential Growth

“What is measured improves. What is measured and reported back exponentially improves.”

This simple principle has a profound impact on performance, whether you’re an Olympic athlete or a business professional.

Consider a study of Olympic-level figure skaters. When they trained on their own, they averaged 60 jumps and spins per hour. But when their coach started tracking their attempts on a whiteboard in real-time, their output soared to 100 elements per hour! Removing the whiteboard caused their performance to drop back down, proving the power of immediate feedback and accountability.

This same principle applies to your business. The single greatest leverage you can use to achieve the success you deserve is increased accountability. It’s about more than just setting goals; it’s about consistently tracking your progress and making adjustments as needed.

That’s why I’m introducing “TAG”—The Appointment Game. This simple 30-day challenge focuses on two key metrics:

  1. Daily New Conversations: How many new conversations about real estate are you initiating each day? This could be through networking, social media, cold calling, or any other lead generation activity.
  2. Weekly New Appointments: How many new appointments are you scheduling each week as a result of those conversations?

Why these metrics? They focus on the activities that directly drive business growth: connecting with potential clients and securing opportunities to present your value.

Here’s how to play TAG:

  1. Track Your Numbers: Each day, track the number of new real estate conversations you have. Each week, track the number of new appointments you set.
  2. Report Your Progress (Optional): Share your progress with an accountability partner, a mentor, or even on social media. Public accountability can be a powerful motivator.
  3. Analyze and Adjust: At the end of each week, review your numbers. Are you hitting your targets? If not, what adjustments can you make to your strategy?

Example:

  • Goal: 5 new conversations per day, leading to 2 new appointments per week.
  • Tracking: Use a simple spreadsheet, a notebook, or a CRM to record your daily conversations and weekly appointments.
  • Analysis: If you’re consistently having conversations but not setting appointments, you might need to refine your qualifying questions or your appointment-setting pitch.

What would happen to your business if you consistently focused on these two metrics for the next 30 days? I challenge you to find out.

TAG, you’re it!

Start tracking, start connecting, and start growing to win the day!

What is measured improves.
What is measured improves.

What Happened To The Real Estate Market?

It’s that time of the month… for the real estate market update. 
 
If there were 2 slides out of the 84 from this month’s KCM updates plus 1 from Altos, which ones would I share? … you will see the 3 below, plus a link to all the slides.  
 
Do you want to attract more people to your brokerage, team, or office? Then help your team translate what all the information and data means and how to act on it. We can help, HMU.

 
Key updates for this month: 
 
  • 247 years later, Adam Smiths’ laws of supply and demand are still working: 99% of US markets had a DECREASE in available re-sale inventory for sale. 
  • A supply-constrained market with no relief in sight 
    • Large institutional investors have indicated no reason to sell – residential is providing higher ROI than commercial. Follow the money. 
    • Consumers are unwilling to trade a 3% mortgage for a 6%, opting instead to remodel or upgrade. 
    • New construction is growing – especially in the South – yet not nearly enough to close the gap. 
    • Freddie Mac survey: In the next 6 months = 18% of consumers indicated a desire to buy while 16% of sellers indicated a desire to sell. 
  • While affordability is always an issue consumers have never been in better financial condition 
    • Average credit score the highest in 23 years – 714 Average 
    • For those applying for a mortgage: 765 is the median credit score 
  • Consumers have more access to data, and information YET lack knowledge 
    • YOU are the knowledge broker for local market activities 
    • AFTER speaking with a knowledgeable HYPER-LOCAL agent, 64.5% of homeowners were MORE likely to sell than before.
    • Creating a conversation with value-added content makes a difference – NO SECRET AGENTS! 
  • A few of the top 20 markets with the most listings sold are in Texas: Houston; San Antonio; Austin, and DFW. Some of the tightest pricing is seen in CA, with less than 12% of listings (the national average is 32%) taking a price decline in cities like La Mirada; Cypress; Fremont; Placencia & Garden Grove.
Key takeaways: 
  • Enabling Homeowners and Investors with value-added information does create listing opportunities. Especially non-owner-occupied and 1031 exchange opportunities.  
  • 16% of homeowners indicated a desire to sell in the next 6 months… that is your opportunity 
  • Sales and Rates Normalizing  – housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected.
  • Homebuilders continue to add to supply, but years of meager homebuilding over the past business cycle means the imbalance will likely continue for some time. 
  • Seasonality has returned 
  • Prices rebounding 
Confidence is contagious, and so is a lack of confidence. There is plenty of actionable data to be confident about. 
PS: Recruiting and retention has never been more important. In all types of markets, we continue to see 10% of agents leave the industry; 10 %to 15% join the industry, and despite an 85% satisfaction rate with their broker 32% switch firms.  Need some help? Let’s chat.
Real Estate Inventory For Sale
Real Estate Inventory For Sale

 

Credit Scores
Credit Score Trends

 

Top 20 Real Estate Market Trends
Top 20 Real Estate Market Trends

The Year Is Half Over

50% of the year is over… it’s time for a quarterly business and operations review!

  • Is it scheduled?
  • I have a powerful 23-question business review – info@winningtheday.blog

Are you ahead, behind, or on track with your goals? In any case, “declare it perfect and move forward powerfully.”

Review what’s working, and what’s not. Make the adjustments, and keep moving forward.

Basic agenda:

  • Mission, vision, values, and stakeholders  – any adjustments?
  • Key KPI s
  • What’s working. What’s not.
  • Start, stop, more, less!
  • Action steps (no more than 2 or 3.)

The results will happen – as long as we are all willing to execute the daily activities, track the results, make the changes to the behaviors, and engage an accountability partner.

Are you interested or committed to what’s left of this year?