For our recruiting and attracting clients, the future is bright for agent growth.
As my business partner Ben Hess – a sailor, says – “fair winds and following seas:” A well-known phrase in the maritime world that means the wind and sea will likely be going in your direction.
October 2024 Commentary
Jobs and real estate work together… has that changed? My business acquaintance Mike Simonsen from Altos Research coined the term “the Great Stay.” In summary, Mike states:
Conventional wisdom has been that the job market must weaken and unemployment must rise… yet unemployment has stayed low for several years.
Normally, when unemployment is low, many of us have confidence we can find a new or better job. Maybe more likely to change jobs.
What we are seeing post-pandemic is layoff rates are very low, and the rate at which companies are hiring is low. So, no one wants to upset “a good thing.”
Housing? Homeowners have a good thing with low rates and a very good run-up in equity.
The incentive to move to “lower cost” states has equalized with higher rates. So, no one wants to upset “a good thing!”
The great stay for jobs and real estate.
While inventory is more than the prior year (34% more), it is compressing as recently at 40% more than last year.
The story that real estate is local is becoming more pronounced; for example, while Denver has more inventory than at any time in the last decade, Orange County, CA is still much tighter.
The outlook? On a National basis, Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist, Realtor.com, said, “We expect the economy to land softly and housing inventory to continue to recover. This should put downward pressure on mortgage rates this fall and winter and set the stage for a much better season for homebuyers in 2025.”
Bankrate did a survey that indicated “More Than Half of Homeowners Would Be Motivated to Buy With Rates Under 6% while 33% Of Sellers Would Be Motivated Below 6%.” Some are projecting that this rate scenario could occur in the first quarter of 2025.
Some additional highlights?
Conditions are better now than in prior quarters.
The third week in a row with more sales – this week, 16% more than a year ago
Very different market-by-market
Mortgage rates are now 6.18%, and a four-firm prediction says 5.68% by Q4 of next year.
National average price appreciation is expected to slow to 2.6%
Wide variation depending on geography and new home builder activity
A 14% increase in home sales (low-range 10% and high-range 21%)
2024 is projected to end at 4.7 million homes sold
2025 is projected at 5.4 million (average of 3 sources with a range from 5.2 to 5.7)
Waiting until next spring or summer would give you more inventory to choose from, but you will be up against greater competition during peak buying season.
“Nothing Good Happens When You Wait,” ~ Mark Johnson.
My takeaway?
No one can give perfect advice… yet you can provide informed advice.
Follow the data.
The trends leave clues.
It’s never been more important to understand the Macro (State and National) and Micro (Regional and Local) markets. My friends at Altos and KCM have some pretty great tools to do both. Hit me up for more insight.
In a world of endless distractions, protecting your most prized resource—”your attention”—must be a priority.
What if?
What if… we didn’t fight distraction? We just made them irrelevant.
How?
Accept, Reflect, and Redirect!
It’s not the distraction’s fault; it’s your focus.
TCF+ is the daily discipline and the daily focus!
Touches
Conversations
Face to Face or Zoom to Zoom
Plus +
Referrals
Database adds
Hires
And we all know the “R” in CRM is relationship!
Sometimes, these distractions come from A.N.T.S.: ants, say what? Automatic negative thoughts… (l learned this from Dr. Daniel Amen).
Let’s face it—agent recruiting and attraction are hard work and typically play out in the long game. They require frequent repetition of proactive tasks with infrequent positive feedback, which is fertile soil for negative thoughts and doubts.
The antidote? Complimentary resources from Recruiting Insight!
We’ve put together a library of resources to enhance your recruiting and attraction game – click here – to check it out.
What if… we didn’t fight distraction? We just made them irrelevant.
I was reflecting today that many things in life and business can be beneficial or harmful depending on how they are used or managed:
Fire, when contained and controlled, provides warmth, cooks our food, and serves many other beneficial purposes. However, when uncontained, it becomes dangerous, costly, and destructive.
Water in the right amount keeps us hydrated and healthy. Although rare, excessive water intake can overwhelm the kidneys, leading to a condition called hyponatremia, where sodium levels in the blood drop to unhealthy levels. (I was participating in a bike ride event where some participants had to be airlifted due to hyponatremia.)
When used responsibly, technology can enhance our lives, improve communication, and increase productivity. However, excessive or inappropriate use can lead to issues like addiction, mis or disinformation, decreased face-to-face interactions, and theft/scams.
Medicine, properly prescribed and taken, can cure illnesses and improve health. Misuse or overuse, however, can lead to side effects, dependency, or even resistance to treatment.
Sunlight is essential for vitamin D production and overall well-being. Too much exposure, though, can result in sunburn, skin damage, and an increased risk of skin cancer.
Like fire, water, technology, medicine, and sunlight, many aspects of our business and lives have dual potentials. They can be incredibly beneficial when used wisely and within limits, but they can also become harmful if mismanaged or overused.
It’s a balancing act that requires awareness and responsibility.
Business often throws us into situations where we feel stuck, unsure of the next step. Whether it’s a career decision, a personal dilemma, or just a general sense of being lost, not knowing what to do can be incredibly frustrating.
Here are some strategies to help you navigate these uncertain times:
Focus on Ends, Not Means
When you’re unsure of what to do, it can be helpful to shift your focus from the process to the outcome. Ask yourself, “What do I ultimately want to achieve?” By clarifying your end goals, you can better evaluate the different paths available to you. This approach helps you stay flexible and open to various methods of reaching your desired outcome.
Focus on Your Values
Your values are your internal compass. When you’re lost, they can guide you back to a path that feels right. Take some time to reflect on what truly matters to you. Is it honesty, creativity, family, or something else? Aligning your actions with your core values can provide a sense of direction and purpose, even when the way forward isn’t clear.
Keep Taking Action – Even If It’s Just One Small Step
Inertia can be paralyzing. When you don’t know what to do, the worst thing you can do is nothing. Even a small step can create momentum. Break down your larger goals into smaller, manageable tasks. Completing these smaller tasks can build confidence and provide clarity on what to do next.
Talk It Out/Get a Second Opinion
Sometimes, the best way to find clarity is to talk it out with someone you trust. A fresh perspective can offer insights you hadn’t considered. Whether it’s a friend, family member, or mentor, getting a second opinion can help you see your situation from a different angle and may reveal new solutions.
Trust Your Feelings/Gut
Your intuition is a powerful tool. While it’s important to gather information and consider your options, don’t discount your gut feelings. Often, your subconscious mind picks up on things that your conscious mind might miss. Trusting your instincts can lead you to choices that align with your true self.
Sleep, Hydrate, Rest
Never underestimate the power of basic self-care. When you’re tired, dehydrated, or stressed, your ability to think clearly is compromised. Make sure you’re getting enough sleep, drinking plenty of water, and taking time to rest. Sometimes, a good night’s sleep can bring a fresh perspective and renewed energy to tackle your challenges.
It’s okay not to have all the answers right away. The important thing is to keep moving forward.
Feeling lost or unsure is a natural part of business. By focusing on your end goals, aligning with your values, taking small steps, seeking advice, trusting your intuition, and taking care of your basic needs, you can navigate through uncertainty with greater ease.
Like many proud parents, I love celebrating my sons’ achievements—even if one chose the UCSC Banana Slugs over the UCI Anteaters! But today, I’m tackling a different kind of “ant”—the Automatic Negative Thoughts (ANTs) that can infest our minds.
Coined by Dr. Daniel Amen, ANTs are negative thought patterns that can sabotage our well-being. Dr. Amen’s inspiration came from a literal ant infestation in his kitchen, a stark reminder of how these mental pests can overrun our minds, stealing our joy and clarity.
Every thought triggers a chemical reaction in our brain. Negative thoughts—like sadness, hopelessness, or anger—release chemicals that can cause physical symptoms like clammy hands, muscle tension, and rapid heart rate. They can also impair our judgment, learning, and memory. Conversely, positive thoughts release chemicals that promote relaxation and mental clarity.
So, how do we exterminate these mental ANTs? First, we need to identify the common species:
Fortune Telling: Predicting negative outcomes without evidence (“I’m going to fail this presentation”).
Mind Reading: Assuming you know what others are thinking (“They probably think I’m incompetent”).
Guilt Beatings: Using “should” or “must” to create feelings of obligation and self-criticism (“I should have done better”).
Blame: Shifting responsibility to others, preventing personal growth and problem-solving.
Labeling: Using negative labels to describe yourself or others (“I’m a failure,” “He’s a jerk”).
Here’s a simple three-step strategy to crush your ANTs:
Catch It: When you notice a negative emotion, pause and identify the thought behind it. What are you telling yourself?
Name It: Determine which type of ANT is at work (fortune telling, mind reading, etc.). Giving it a name helps you recognize its pattern.
Challenge It: Question the validity of the thought. Is there real evidence to support it? What’s a more realistic or positive way to view the situation?
Example:
Thought: “I’m going to mess up this meeting.” (Fortune Telling)
Challenge: “I’ve prepared thoroughly. While things might not go perfectly, I’m capable of handling whatever comes up. Focusing on the potential negative outcome is only making me more anxious.”
By consistently practicing this three-step method, you can weaken the power of ANTs and cultivate a more positive and productive mindset. Don’t let these mental pests control your thoughts and emotions. Take charge and reclaim your mental well-being.
In today’s fast-paced world, there are countless conference opportunities for agents, team leaders, and broker-owners. Among them, Inman Connect events in New York and Las Vegas. This year’s Las Vegas event was no exception, offering a wealth of learning and networking opportunities.
The main topic?
Co-op commission sharing is dead, and how to move forward in a new commission model.
No matter which conference you choose to attend, it’s essential to have a plan for what comes next. That’s where my 4-Step Post-Conference Guide comes in. Professional conferences are unparalleled opportunities to expand your network, gain fresh ideas, deepen connections, break out of your routine, and shake things up.
Yet, many of us struggle to take action after these events. Why is that?
Often, it’s because we return home with an overwhelming amount of information to process.
To combat this, it’s crucial to create a post-conference action plan that empowers you.
The key to a successful post-conference routine is taking ACTION.
Here are 4 steps to maximize your conference investment:
Network Post-Event: Don’t let those valuable connections fade away. Follow up, close the loop, and build relationships for referrals, accountability, and more.
Leverage Your Social Channels: Showcase your commitment to excellence and service by sharing your conference experiences on social media. Highlight how your time investment benefits your customers and potential clients.
Organize Your Notes into a Checklist: Commit to action by creating a checklist of key takeaways and sharing it with an accountability partner, mentor, or coach. Checklists are powerful tools that help you get more done and keep your brain happy. According to research summarized by best-selling author Maria Konnikova, here’s why:
Your Mind Seeks Organization: Lists tap into our preferred way of receiving and organizing information at a subconscious level.
Spatial Processing: It’s easier to remember items when they’re written down in bulleted or numbered points.
Categorization: We process information more efficiently when it’s organized into lists rather than clustered in paragraphs.
Time Awareness: Knowing how long tasks will take increases our commitment to completing them.
Self-Reinforcement: Checking off items from a list provides a dopamine hit, encouraging us to return to the list for more.
Do your brain a favor and break down what you learned into actionable checklists.
Take Action NOW!: Don’t wait! Procrastination only delays your success. Implement what you’ve learned immediately.
So, there you have it—4 steps to make the most of your conference experience!
