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What’s Going On In The Real Estate Market?

The predictions of the real estate market have been about as accurate as the local weather forecast in areas without Doppler Radar.

Two headlines in real estate, really?!

Yes.

The summary? Solid demand with low inventory means fewer options for real estate buyers AND a tale of two markets.

In a recent WSJ article, Nicole Friedman wrote the United States is a country of two housing markets. In one, home prices are falling from a year ago. In the other, they’re still posting annual gains. That division runs right down the center of the U.S. She listed – with data from Black Knight – the top 10 markets with the largest price increases between February 2020 and January 2023:

  • Tampa up 59%
  • Miami up 53%
  • Austin, Texas, up 50%
  • Jacksonville up 50%
  • Charlotte up 49%
  • Atlanta up 49%
  • Nashville up 48%
  • Orlando up 48%
  • Raleigh up 47%
  • Phoenix up 47%

Nicole’s article points out that real estate markets are hyper-local and geography-specific. According to Michael Simonsen from Altos Research, we continue to see a seller’s market across the US. You can see the National numbers – on this link – and type in your own zip code for a local view.

In looking at this week’s Altos data, the top 10 markets with the most listings absorbed –  it’s a Texas sweep:

  • Houston
  • San Antonio
  • Fort Worth (Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind?)
  • Austin
  • Dallas
  • Orlando
  • El Paso
  • Denver
  • Minneapolis
  • Lubbock (Buddy Holly and Mac Davis would like this)

I observed this week on a National basis another 1% drop in inventory for sale at a time when inventory is typically rising by 1% or more each week. This, in my view, is a leading indicator of a supply-constrained market for the Spring buying season. Many homeowners have a current mortgage rate below 4%, and many don’t want to sell their current rate and pay a higher rate for a different house.

Implication? It’s going to be a great time for remodeling contractors.

Many homeowners are also sitting on large cushions of equity, and the institutional investors show no sign of liquidating inventory, which is likely to prevent any big wave of foreclosures and distressed sales.

 

National Real Estate For Sales
Inventory For Sale In The US. Source Altos Research for the week ending 4/2/23

 

In many markets across the US, housing demand is high enough for sellers to command pricing. In fact, the latest percentage of listed homes with a price decline dropped this week to 30.5% when just a month ago, it was nearly 40%. Investors and buyers who were sitting on the fence missed an opportunity back in November and December.

 

Listed Real Estate Properties With A Price Decrease
Listed Real Estate Properties With A Price Decrease. Source Altos Research for the week ending 4/2/23

In other news, according to Altos, the median price of a new listing his week rose to $437,500 across the US, while the median rent was $2,250. The headlines will be hard to interpret as some are comparing to last year’s unprecedented price increases. The data shows increasing prices on a National basis but not near the pace of last year. My view? The unprecedented rise in mortgage rates has softened demand but not enough to balance the market.

The solution? Building, renovation, and conversation of mall and unused office space for residential use. The issue, according to Nicole, is Home builders have been hampered by supply-chain issues and labor shortages. Yet, Jonathan Lanser, a real estate and business journalist for the Orange County Register, recently reported that new home builders gained 2.8% in market share. Yet is it enough? I say no.  It seems to me from a National, Regional, and local City perspective, we need to address housing policy to place this vital sector of the US economy in a position to enable the American dream vs. destroying it.

Control the Controllable
Control the Controllable

Questions Lead To Answers

Part of the peak performer playbook (PPP):

 

  • Better questions lead to answers
  • Failure isn’t the end 
  • Getting ahead is not necessarily selfish
  • You can always turn things around
  • Everyone was dumb or a beginner at some point
  • You can still meet business-changing mentors 

 

What You Say Matters
What You Say Matters

A Best Practice

25% of the year is over… it’s time for a quarterly business and operations review! Is it scheduled? I have a powerful 21 question business review – info@winningtheday.blog

Are you ahead, behind or on track with your goals? In any case “declare it perfect and move forward powerfully.”

Review what’s working, what’s not. Make the adjustments, and keep moving forward.

Basic agenda:

  • Mission, vision, values and stakeholders  – any adjustments?
  • Key KPI’s
  • What’s working + What’s not
  • Start, start, more, less
  • Action steps (no more than 2)

The results will happen – as long as we are all willing to execute the daily activities, track the results, make the changes to the behaviors and engage an accountability partner.

Are you nterested or committed to what’s left of this year?

By design or by default
By design vs. by default

Outcomes Matter

The problem with the traditional to-do list is that it’s about tasks and not about outcomes.

An outcome could be something like:  “increase revenue by 25%” or “build a relationship with specific people.”

There is no single task that will cause the outcome. There is arguably a set of tasks that could build up to it.

Concrete, measurable outcomes are better than vague ones, but some highly desirable outcomes can only be qualitatively stated (like relationships) and cannot be quantified (like the number of appointments).

So for myself, I am working to get better at linking my daily tasks to the outcome via process goals. More importantly, I am also trying to nail down this art of defining the process that leads to the desired outcome.

For you, that might be 3 or more NEW appointments each week. So I’d rather see something like this:

  • Create 3 or more new appointments each week… then list the task to support that outcome.
  • Create 2 or more closings per month between now and the end of the year, and then list the associated process that will lead to appointments that will lead to signed agreements.
  • Deepen my relationship with 4 people… then list people and the process that will achieve that outcome

What are your key outcomes and associated processes for this week?

#WinTheDay

Process goals
Process goals perform the best

Unproductive Busyness

Unproductive busyness, bad for you… bad for your business.

Parkinson’s law:

Work increases to fill the time available.

Pareto (80/20):

Extra time fills with unimportant activities.

The solution?

Ask yourself – How would you get your work done tomorrow if:

You only had 2 hours per day to complete it?

You only had 2 hours per week to complete it?

Then, write down only 2 mission critical items and test by asking:

Would I be satisfied with my day if only that happened?

What are the consequences if they don’t?

Complete those tasks by 11 AM the next day.

Don’t multitask.

#WinTheDay

Commitment And Courage: C > F = R
Commitment And Courage: C > F = R

Is It the Market? Me? Or My Broker? The Real Reason Agents Leave

How often do you hear agents say they’re leaving for “greener pastures”? It’s the classic trifecta of blame: Is it the market? Is it me? Is it my broker?

While sometimes a change is genuinely beneficial, the root cause is often simpler and more challenging to fix. In my experience, agent success—and retention—isn’t about who you are, but what you consistently do. It’s about behavior.

As a broker or team leader, I assume you have a defined niche, a clear vision for your ideal agent, and a compelling value proposition. And I know most brokers genuinely care. So, if the fundamentals are in place, why do agents still leave? The answer rarely lies in the external environment. It lives in their daily habits, inconsistent marketing efforts, and the inability to deliver a seamless client experience.


The Science of Sticking Around: Why Motivation Matters

My business partner, Ben Hess of Recruiting Insight, explores the science of human motivation in his eBook on the “psychology of recruiting.” He highlights a critical truth: our brains are wired for quick conclusions—a useful survival mechanism, but one that often leads to flawed, self-serving judgments (like “it must be the broker!”).

What if, instead of guessing, you understood the science behind motivating your associates? This knowledge empowers you to implement effective retention strategies rooted in psychology.

Several powerful books—Atomic Habits, The Miracle Morning, The Power of Habit, and Do Hard Things—all point to three key motivational drivers you must address:

  1. Daily Habits
  2. A Sense of Belonging
  3. Instinct and Action

1. Build Better Agents with Better Habits

As The Power of Habit and Atomic Habits explain, much of our daily activity is driven by unconscious habits. To change the outcome, you must change the input.

In our work with agents, we see common habit challenges: consistent marketing, regular prospecting, database management, and effective time management.

Take the common question: “Where are the listings?”

We already know where to look, thanks to David Knox’s 7 D’s: Death, Divorce, Diplomas, Diamonds (engagements), Downsizing, Daily Grind (job changes), and changes in Discretionary income.

The key is translating this knowledge into actionable habits. Instead of just telling agents to prospect, break it down into a simple, non-negotiable system:

The winning formula is not knowledge; it’s execution.

A leading indicator of success is the number of new appointments created each day or week. Imagine the impact of a dedicated “90-Day New Appointment Hustle” within your office—that’s a habit you can measure and celebrate.


2. Foster a Culture of Belonging (They Want a Home)

Beyond habits, a fundamental human need is a sense of belonging. As a broker, how would you rate your efforts in creating a compelling culture? When associates feel valued, heard, and able to contribute, they stop looking for “greener pastures”—they’ve found their home.

Consider these powerful cultural strategies:

  • Connect work to a deeper meaning (e.g., every home sold creates two local jobs).
  • Implement strategies to make people feel valued more often than just at closing.
  • Foster a balance between collaborative support and healthy, performance-based competition.
  • Create spaces for sharing big wins, tough challenges, and personal breakthroughs.
  • Connect the organization to a shared vision for the future, not just the current market.
  • Provide a steady and reasoned voice in all market conditions to cut through the noise.
  • Develop a strategy to support struggling agents and actively connect them with thriving mentors.

3. Translate Instinct into Action

Finally, there’s instinct. According to Dr. Gary Klein, instinct is how we translate experience into judgment and action. You’ve likely experienced this yourself: “I had a feeling about it,” or “I felt it in my gut.”

Now it’s time to help your agents act on those insights.

Just as with building habits, break down complex market indicators into simple, executable steps. The ideas in this article are only valuable with action!

  • Some of our clients are running 14-day “How to Earn Listings in This Market” sprints.
  • Others are starting an accountability-focused book club (Atomic Habits is a great start).
  • Still others are hosting weekly “Pizza, Prospecting, and Profit” sessions where agents work together to make calls.

To truly succeed, leave nothing to chance. By focusing on building positive, measurable habits and fostering a strong sense of belonging, you can significantly reduce the “it’s my broker’s fault” mindset and build a thriving, stable team.

That is how we win the day!


Your Next Step

What is one action item from this article you can implement with your team this week?

By design or by default
By design vs. by default

Drowning in Data? The Importance of Focus in a World of Information Overload

Information is power, but in today’s world, we’re facing an unprecedented data deluge. According to Domo’s Data Never Sleeps 10.0 report, global data creation is exploding, projected to reach 181 zettabytes by 2025. Just consider the activity every minute: millions of Google searches, hundreds of hours of YouTube uploads, thousands of Instagram posts and tweets.

While access to information can fuel innovation, the sheer volume can be overwhelming. The key is focus and discernment. In a world of constant digital noise, the ability to filter out distractions and focus on what truly matters is more critical than ever. This means:

  • Prioritizing relevant information: Don’t try to consume everything. Focus on the data that directly impacts your goals.
  • Developing critical thinking skills: Learn to evaluate information sources and identify credible insights.
  • Creating boundaries: Limit your exposure to unnecessary information and create dedicated time for focused work.

In a world of data overload, focus is your superpower. And that is how you win the day.

Humans are underrated
Humans are underrated

* A zettabyte is a measure of storage capacity and is 2 to the 70th power bytes, also expressed as 1021 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) or 1 sextillion bytes. One Zettabyte is approximately equal to a thousand Exabytes, a billion Terabytes, or a trillion Gigabytes. Do the math – old math or new math; that’s a lot of data.

You Don’t Need Permission to Win

Orville and Wilbur Wright didn’t wait for permission to invent the airplane. They didn’t have a pilot’s license—because it didn’t exist yet! What they did have was creativity, passion, and persistence. These are the same qualities you need to achieve your biggest goals.

You don’t need anyone’s permission but your own. What dream are you waiting to pursue? Stop waiting and start doing. That’s how we win the day.

P.S. Bill Bowerman, the co-founder of Nike, wasn’t a traditional shoe designer. He invented the iconic “waffle sole” in his own garage using his wife’s waffle iron. Innovators don’t ask for permission; they find a way.

Fly
Fly

Stressful Times

These can be stressful times with uncertainty in the marketplace… it’s tempting to adopt a fixed mindset and become reactive.

Here are a few simple tips to consider for keeping a growth mindset despite the current situation. Ask yourself:

”What does this make possible?”

“What new creative value can I provide?”

“What’s the highest and best use of my time right now?”

“Who do I need to reach out to that I’ve not connected with for some time?”

“What if?” “Why not?”

Ambiguity
Ambiguity