This week a reporter reached out to me with several questions about a new report showing that nearly one-third of U.S. counties are now seriously unaffordable for homebuyers. One question stood out: why aren’t falling home prices making homes more affordable?
It’s the right question, and the answer should shape every coaching conversation we have with our agents right now.
The short answer: the payment is the problem, not the price.
The reality in three numbers
- $222 vs. $38. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rate rose from 6.27% a year ago to 7.40% as of Oct. 15. On a $294,400 loan (the median-priced home with 20% down), that adds about $222 a month to principal and interest. Over the same year, ATTOM’s national median price fell from $375,000 to $368,000. That price drop saves the buyer only about $38 a month.
- $90,191 vs. $79,534. ATTOM estimates a buyer needs to earn $90,191 a year to afford the median-priced home. The national average wage is $79,534.
- 43%. Live data from Altos Research shows 43% of single-family listings nationally have had a price cut.
Buyers have more choice and more room to negotiate. What’s stopping them is the monthly payment.
Look at your market
Every market is local. Here’s the live picture from Altos Research as of October 21, 2026. Click any link, then enter your own city or ZIP code.
- National: $434,900 median list price. Inventory has climbed to 905,166 homes, and the median home sits 70 days. Pricing strategy matters more than ever.
- California: $765,000. Prices have plateaued. Watch for demand to pick up before expecting prices to climb.
- New York: $599,000. The fastest-moving of these markets at 56 median days, but inventory is rising and sellers’ edge is narrowing.
- Florida: $469,000. 44% of listings have cut their price, and the median home sits 84 days. Buyers have real leverage.
- Texas: $365,000. Also 44% price cuts and 84 days. Texas agents need to master the “Staleness Conversation.”
Same pattern everywhere: prices are flat, sellers are adjusting, and buyers are watching their payment.
Coaching ourselves first
As leaders, we set the tone. If we talk about this market as a crisis, our agents will too, and so will their clients.
The RealTrends “Against All Odds” study, led by Steve Murray and his team, looked at 15 brokerages that grew through the 2008–2012 downturn. Their edge wasn’t a secret strategy. It was great leadership, getting closer to their people, and executing the daily fundamentals.
That’s our job this quarter. Know the numbers. Stay close to your agents. Make the daily fundamentals non-negotiable.
Coaching our agents: six conversations to have this week
1. Lead with the payment, not the price.
A buyer who knows their price but not their payment isn’t ready. Start every buyer consultation with a preapproval and a clear monthly number.
What to say: “Before we look at homes, let’s agree on the monthly payment you’re comfortable with. Then we’ll find the home that fits it.”
2. Run the buydown math on every offer.
A price cut barely moves the payment at today’s rates. Have your agents ask their lender partner to compare a price reduction with the same dollars in seller credit toward a rate buydown, then show the seller both.
What to say: “A $7,000 price cut lowers the buyer’s payment about $38 a month. The same $7,000 toward their rate may lower it more. Let’s have the lender show us both, so we pick the option that gets your home sold.”
3. Retire the 20% myth.
According to NAR, the typical first-time buyer puts down 10%, not 20%, and is now 40 years old, an all-time high. Help your agents learn their state and county down payment assistance programs, along with the basics of FHA and low-down-payment conventional loans. A smaller down payment raises the monthly payment, so the payment conversation still comes first.
What to say: “You may not need 20% down. Let’s sit down with a lender and look at every option before you decide you have to keep renting.”
4. Talk about qualifying vs. comfortable.
The traditional guideline is to keep housing costs at 28% of gross income, and lenders often approve more. Agents earn trust by helping buyers find the payment they can live with, not just the one they qualify for.
What to say: “The bank tells you what you can borrow. My job is to make sure you can still live your life after you move in.”
5. Price listings right on day one.
Every price cut tells buyers the first price was wrong. Coach agents to bring sellers real market data at the listing appointment, so the first price is the right price.
What to say: “The market will tell us if we’re wrong, but it will cost you time and money to find out. Let’s price it where buyers are acting today.”
6. Remember that life doesn’t wait for rates.
People still move because of the 8 D’s: Diamonds, Diapers, Diplomas, Drive, Downsizing, Deployments, Divorce, and Decline or Death. Many of these come with a deadline, whatever rates are doing. Those clients need an agent who knows this market cold.
What to say: “Whatever rates do, your life has a timeline. Let’s build a plan around it.”
The bottom line
This market rewards agents who understand it and punishes those who wait for it to change. Rates may come down, or they may not. Either way, the agents who know the payment math, prepare their buyers, and work their fundamentals every day will win.
Your next step: Pull up your own market on Altos, then share this post with your team at your next meeting and practice these six conversations together. If you’d like help coaching your team through this market, book a session with me at calendly.com/mjsession.
Coach to the reality. Then go win the day.
Sources: ATTOM Home Affordability Reports (Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 figures as reported); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; NAR 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers; Altos Research single-family market data for the U.S., California, New York, Florida and Texas, October 21, 2026. Payment figures are my own calculations: 30-year fixed, principal and interest only.
