Mark's passion and expertise is enabling real estate broker-owners and team leaders to create the systems, structure, and processes to support their growth. He also enjoys sharing his thoughts on business success on his blog: www.winningtheday.blog
Just received some edits from my Ph.D. friend, who is giving my textbook on the introduction to real estate economics a test drive. That got me thinking: The recession of 2023 is postponed and more likely canceled.
Moody’s Analytics has the GDP estimate for the current quarter at 3.9 percent annualized growth The Federal Reserve of Atlanta estimates growth at 5.9 percent. Either way, you slice it, healthy stats.
A point in time:
Unemployment is low at: 3.8%
Business investment: holding steady
Consumer spending: steady
Consumer sentiment: improving
Non-residential investment: contributed 25% of GDP growth and increasing
Industrial and Manufacturing: turn-around with slight improvement
Inflation is moderating with some disinflation for housing rent and vehicles
Housing? The challenge remains a lack of resale inventory and mortgage rates. The lack of inventory is moving homebuyers into the new home market. New residential construction is accelerating. Fun fact: NAR’s chief economist stated the resale market could absorb a 50% increase in inventory. That’s not likely to happen at current rates – thus, new home sales OR sales activity from the 10,000 Americans turning 65 each day, many of whom own their homes mortgage-free.
As seasonality picks up its pace, your buyer clients will find some opportunities between now and the end of the year.
It appears the US economy has proven more robust than the pundits thought. As inflation continues to improve and when growth remains steady, that could erase the final fears of negative growth. At the end of the day, what can we control?
We CANNOT control the market.
We CANNOT control what others think.
We CAN control our business process.
We CAN control our thoughts, behaviors, and routines.
Every Monday matters. Working with a client to listen in on sales calls and role-playing = is priceless.
Do you debrief after every mission? Read this:
In the business world, the term “debrief” frequently has had a negative bias associated with it, probably because it is used only when there’s a mistake, a negative outcome, or a fault to find. But such a fear-based approach is the opposite of how Blue Angels pilots structure their training, practice, and subsequent success. On the contrary, their goal is to drive fear out of the organization.
We had tickets to tonight’s doubleheader: Reds vs. the Angels, and I was the designated driver. My family trusted me to drive to get them back and forth safely; in fact, Tim fell asleep in route. That’s trust. Trust is so important in so many ways.
Whether it’s driving my family or friends or working with my associates, clients, and vendors, trust is everything. There’s nothing more impactful on people, their work, and their performance than trust.
Stephen Covey said it best, “You can ignore the principles that govern trust—but they will not ignore you.”
In other news, it was a tough night for the home team.
Here is what I know as an entrepreneur, you try 10 things, and 9 don’t work out as planned, and 1 (after tweaking it) works.
The problems entrepreneurs confront every day would overwhelm most managers.
The point? Persistence. If you believe in what problems you are solving, you keep iterating until you find the formula.
I’m in the game.
It’s not about the money… it’s the challenge of solving a problem that helps people and firms grow.
It’s the community, connection, and servant leadership.
#WinTheDay
PS: Checklist
1. Is my vision clear and compelling?
2. Are my goals defined?
3. Do I have the right strategy?
4. Can I execute the strategy?
5. Is it fun with people I love and respect?
I posted this yesterday, and I might everyday for the next 90 days. Why? Lately it’s been the first three words when I wake, and the last three words of the day.
Servant leaders build community. They encourage friendships and provide forums for these relationships to emerge and deepen.
Servant leaders work to build strong positive relationships and are willing to accept the differences of others as a strength.
Getting the job done is not enough. Servant leaders are concerned about the health and strength of others and the overall sense of community and connection.
Servant leaders accomplish this by building relationships, community and connection.
In other news – about last night – the Angel game was postponed so we just walked around the lake and interacted with our community. Whenever I see a park bench, I always think of Forest Gump: “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get” yet you can always serve to make things just a little better.
For my friends in real estate and my friends that are buyers and sellers… some real estate market observations thanks to my friends over at Altos:
We all know that a change in mortgage rates reduces the real estate sales rate and vice versa. With the highest mortgage rates in 20 years, a few observations:
35% of sellers are taking a price decline from the initial sales price, which is ticking up slightly. Austin, Texas, has the highest level of price cuts, with nearly 50% of listed homes with a price cut. The lowest? Irvine, California, at 15% of homes listed.
There are 10% fewer homes on the market now than this time last year. The inventory of homes for sale tends to peak at the end of August – yet not this year with higher rates – inventory might continue to rise past normal seasonality.
Late August Observations…
Unsold homes ticked up this week.
Inventory gain week over week is the highest in a few months – and good news for your buyers that can afford to buy
The sales rate has slowed; part seasonality and part rates.
On a national basis, 365K homes are in contact right now, up a fraction vs. last week.
However, new pending sales this week were 63K vs. 70K last year.
As we enter into seasonality, the trend to look for – how quickly will new pending sales shrink? Will it be more significant than normal seasonality? That is the stat I’ll be watching.
One bright spot – 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily and are typically cash buyers when they downsize or move closer to family.
“What do you really really want?” This Is really the second most important question. Say what?! The more important question is: “What are willing to give up to get it?”
Are you willing to give up chill time for gym time?
Are you willing to trade busy work for prospecting, business development, or recruiting?
Write a book? Are you willing to give up what you usually do from 7 to 9 pm and go to the library instead?
I’ll do whatever it takes to get what I really, really want.
I’ll give up whatever it takes to ______ (fill in the blank)
To get _________, (fill in the blank) I’ll do whatever it takes.
When you are willing to do whatever it takes, you’ll earn want you really want.
“Onward and upward” is a mindset that requires a few key ingredients: optimism, empathy, curiosity and action.
Optimism is the ability to overcome adversity despite the circumstances.
Empathy is the ability to understand situations from another’s perspective with no judgment. The ability to choose to respond rather than to react.
Curiosity. To be effective be curious: curious about how people are feeling, curious about why things happen, curious about the future, curious about steps to take to navigate difficult waters.
Action. The winners are the doers. Talk is cheap, action speaks.
When we make changes by design vs. default we can craft a future the supports the growth we deserve.
Perfection is not a standard, progress is.
With 80 to 90 working days left in 2023 I’m opening up 10 slots for “what’s possible” strategy sessions. Because it’s not how you start the game it’s how you finish.
Research by the University of London reveals that our IQ drops by five to 15 points when we are multitasking.
In his book, Your Brain at Work, David Rock explains that performance can decrease by up to 50% when a person focuses on two mental tasks at once.
And research led by legendary Stanford University professor Clifford Nass concluded that distractions reduce the brain’s ability to filter out irrelevancy in its working memory.
So, what do you need to stop doing? Start doing? More of and less of?
Trust. The speed of trust.
We had tickets to tonight’s doubleheader: Reds vs. the Angels, and I was the designated driver. My family trusted me to drive to get them back and forth safely; in fact, Tim fell asleep in route. That’s trust. Trust is so important in so many ways.
Whether it’s driving my family or friends or working with my associates, clients, and vendors, trust is everything. There’s nothing more impactful on people, their work, and their performance than trust.
Stephen Covey said it best, “You can ignore the principles that govern trust—but they will not ignore you.”
In other news, it was a tough night for the home team.