Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

Market data as of October 2025. For the latest numbers in your area, see my live Altos Research market report.

From my friends at Keeping Current Matters, a clear explanation of where mortgage rates were headed in fall 2025, and one your agents can use with every buyer and seller who asks, “Are rates coming down?”

The Link Most Consumers Don’t Know

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the 10-year Treasury yield. When the yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. When it falls, rates usually come down.

The gap between the two is called the spread. Historically, it averages about 1.76 percentage points, or 176 basis points.

The Spread Is a Fear Gauge

Over the past few years, the spread ran much wider than normal. Think of it as a measure of uncertainty. The more uncertainty in the economy, the wider the gap, and the higher mortgage rates run compared with the Treasury yield.

In fall 2025, the spread was starting to shrink as the economic path became clearer. Redfin put it simply: a lower spread means lower mortgage rates.

The Math

At the time, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.09%. Add the average spread of 1.76% and you get a mortgage rate of roughly 5.85%. That’s why Fannie Mae was forecasting rates in the upper 5s by the end of 2026, with plenty of ups and downs along the way.

What This Means for Your Agents

Most consumers watch the headline rate. Your agents can stand out by explaining why it moves.

Teach the two forces. The Treasury yield and the spread. It turns a guess into a conversation.
Stop predicting. Nobody knows next spring’s rate. Agents who explain the drivers earn more trust than agents who promise a number.
Bring in a lender. A short joint call or video on how rates really work is a simple, value-added touch for the database.

Rates are one input. Life events still move people, rates or not.