Market data as of September 2023. For the latest numbers in your area, see my live Altos Research market report.
Just received some edits from my Ph.D. friend, who is giving my textbook on the introduction to real estate economics a test drive. That got me thinking: The recession of 2023 is postponed and more likely canceled.
Moody’s Analytics has the GDP estimate for the current quarter at 3.9 percent annualized growth The Federal Reserve of Atlanta estimates growth at 5.9 percent. Either way, you slice it, healthy stats.
A point in time:
- Unemployment is low at: 3.8%
- Business investment: holding steady
- Consumer spending: steady
- Consumer sentiment: improving
- Non-residential investment: contributed 25% of GDP growth and increasing
- Industrial and Manufacturing: turn-around with slight improvement
- Inflation is moderating with some disinflation for housing rent and vehicles
Housing? The challenge remains a lack of resale inventory and mortgage rates. The lack of inventory is moving homebuyers into the new home market. New residential construction is accelerating. Fun fact: NAR’s chief economist stated the resale market could absorb a 50% increase in inventory. That’s not likely to happen at current rates; thus, new home sales OR sales activity from the 10,000 Americans turning 65 each day, many of whom own their homes mortgage-free.
As seasonality picks up its pace, your buyer clients will find some opportunities between now and the end of the year.
It appears the US economy has proven more robust than the pundits thought. As inflation continues to improve and when growth remains steady, that could erase the final fears of negative growth. At the end of the day, what can we control?
- We CANNOT control the market.
- We CANNOT control what others think.
- We CAN control our business process.
- We CAN control our thoughts, behaviors, and routines.
And that’s how we win the day.
PS: Look up your local housing stats on this hyperlink
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